#1 South Carolina vs. #16 Southern Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#1 South Carolina and #16 Southern meet at Colonial Life Arena for a high-stakes First Round matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The overall No. 1 seed South Carolina Gamecocks (31-3) open their March Madness® run at home following an SEC Championship game loss to Texas. They host the Southern Jaguars (20-13), who advanced to the Round of 64 after defeating Samford by 12 points in the First Four®. South Carolina enters the tournament as a dominant force, leading the nation in points per possession (1.222) and seeking their fourth national title under head coach Dawn Staley. The Jaguars arrive in Columbia on a hot streak, having won eight of their last 10 games.
To watch the Gamecocks vs. Jaguars First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a monthly subscription to Sling Orange + Blue with ABC in designated markets.
South Carolina Gamecocks Analysis
- Season Overview: 31-3 record; finished as SEC Champions for the fifth consecutive season and earned a No. 1 seed for the sixth straight tournament. The Gamecocks boast one of the nation's elite offenses, ranking fourth in scoring with 86.3 points per game.
- Star Player: Joyce Edwards (F). The sophomore standout leads the team with 19.6 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, recently earning second-team All-America honors.
- The X-Factor: Interior Defensive Length. South Carolina ranks sixth nationally in field goal percentage allowed (.350) and blocks per game (6.1). The mid-season addition of 6-foot-7 Alicia Tournebize adds even more size to an already dominant frontcourt.
Southern Jaguars Analysis
- Season Overview: 20-13 record; went 15-6 in SWAC play and secured their spot in the field of 64 through a First Four victory. The Jaguars rely on a high-pressure defense that averages 12.8 steals per game.
- Star Player: DeMya Porter (F). Leading the Jaguars with 9.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, she will be the primary focal point of their interior efforts against South Carolina's size.
- The Upset Formula: Defensive Pressure and Pace. Southern forces turnovers at a high rate; to keep the game competitive, they must disrupt South Carolina's backcourt rhythm and capitalize on transition opportunities.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: Frontcourt Dominance. South Carolina’s interior depth, featuring Joyce Edwards and Madina Okot (13.4 PPG, 10.9 RPG), faces a Southern squad that averages just 31.8 rebounds per game.
- Statistical Edge: South Carolina shoots 50.7% from the field (3rd in the nation), a massive efficiency advantage over Southern’s 39.2% shooting mark.
- Betting Trends: South Carolina is a historic 52.5-point favorite at home. The Gamecocks are 21-2 all-time in NCAA Tournament games played at Colonial Life Arena.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: South Carolina Gamecocks.
- Final Score Prediction: South Carolina 94, Southern 41.
- Best Bet: South Carolina -52.5.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in the game between Gamecocks vs Jaguars? South Carolina is currently a 52.5-point favorite according to FanDuel and BetMGM.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women's Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange + Sling Blue for ESPN and ABC in designated markets.
- What time is the South Carolina game? Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, March 21, on ABC.