#6 Washington vs. #11 South Dakota State Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026

#6 Washington takes on #11 South Dakota State at Schollmaier Arena for a do-or-die matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.

The Huskies enter the tournament after a rigorous Big Ten campaign, having navigated a schedule that featured the 13th-toughest SOS in the country. They face a South Dakota State squad that is the definition of a "bracket buster," entering March Madness® on a dominant win streak and making their 14th appearance in 18 seasons. With a potential second-round matchup against host TCU on the line, expect a battle between Washington’s Power 4 athleticism and the Jackrabbits’ championship pedigree.

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Game Information Table

Washington Huskies Analysis

• Season Overview: Washington (21-10) earned an at-large bid after finishing 8th in a loaded Big Ten conference. Their season was highlighted by a marquee road win at Indiana and a defense that ranks top-30 nationally in points allowed per game.
• Star Player: Sayvia Sellers (G). The junior guard has been the heart of the Huskies' attack, averaging 18.5 points and 3.7 assists. Her ability to score at all three levels makes her one of the most dangerous perimeter threats in the region.
• The X-Factor: Defensive Stature. The Huskies utilize their length effectively, led by 6'5" center Yulia Grabovskaia and 6'0" guard Avery Howell (8.3 RPG). If Washington can control the glass and limit SDSU to one shot per possession, their size advantage should wear down the Jackrabbits.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits Analysis

• Season Overview: The Jackrabbits (27-6) are the undisputed queens of the Summit League, capturing their fourth consecutive conference tournament title. They enter March on a roll, boasting a high-octane offense that averages 76.6 points per game.
• Star Player: Brooklyn Meyer (F). The senior forward is the focal point of the SDSU system, providing veteran leadership and efficient post scoring. She anchors a lineup that ranks 1st in the Summit League in field goal percentage (.484).
• The Upset Formula: Three-Point Barrage. SDSU leads their conference in three-pointers made per game (7.1). If guards Madison Mathiowetz and Ellie Colbeck can get hot from deep early, they can force Washington's bigs out of the paint and create the chaos needed for an 11-over-6 upset.

Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics

• Position Battle: The Guard vs. The System. Washington’s Sayvia Sellers will likely be shadowed by SDSU’s defensive specialists. How Sellers handles the Jackrabbits' disciplined "no-middle" defense will dictate whether Washington can maintain their offensive rhythm.
• Statistical Edge: Washington holds the advantage in Strength of Schedule (13th vs. 145th), but South Dakota State boasts superior shooting efficiency and a higher scoring margin (+15.3).
• Betting Trends: Washington is a 5.5-point favorite. However, South Dakota State is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament, making them a popular "trendy" upset pick.

Final Prediction & Betting Pick

• The Verdict: Washington Huskies
• Final Score Prediction: Washington 68, South Dakota State 64
• Best Bet: South Dakota State +5.5

Frequently Asked Questions

• Who is the favorite in the game between Huskies and Jackrabbits? Washington is currently a 5.5-point favorite.
• Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange + Sports Extras or subscribe to a 1, 3, & 7 Day Pass.
• What time is the game? Tip-off is at 2:30 PM ET on ESPNEWS.

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