#1 Texas vs. #16 Missouri State Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#1 Texas and #16 Missouri State clash at the Moody Center in a thrilling First Round matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The Friday afternoon March Madness® window in Austin features a high-stakes showdown as the Texas Longhorns host the Missouri State Lady Bears at the Moody Center. Texas enters the tournament as a No. 1 seed for the third consecutive season, led by All-SEC junior Madison Booker. The Longhorns are making another deep tournament run under Vic Schaefer, looking to build on a 31-win season that included an SEC championship appearance. They face a resilient Missouri State squad that navigated the First Four to reach the Round of 64. The Lady Bears are known for their gritty rebounding and defensive tenacity, presenting a significant stylistic challenge to Texas’ high-efficiency offense. With the Longhorns seeking their first Final Four since 2003, this 1-vs-16 matchup kicks off a pursuit of national glory on their home court.
To watch the Longhorns vs. Lady Bears First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to ESPN or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange.
Texas Longhorns Analysis
- Season Overview: Texas (31-3) shared the SEC regular-season title and enters the tournament shooting an elite 50.0% from the field. They have been nearly unbeatable at home and carry top-tier metrics, including a 14-0 non-conference record and an average of 78.1 points per game over their last 10 outings.
- Star Player: Madison Booker (F). The junior standout leads the Longhorns with 18.9 points per game on 51.7% shooting. A versatile forward who can dominate inside or facilitate the offense, Booker is the engine that drives Texas' No. 3 national ranking.
- The X-Factor: Rori Harmon. The veteran graduate guard provides elite playmaking and defensive pressure, anchoring a backcourt that allows just 61.0 points per game to SEC-level competition. If Harmon can disrupt Missouri State’s rhythm early, Texas will likely pull away before halftime.
Missouri State Lady Bears Analysis
- Season Overview: Missouri State (23-12) advanced to the Round of 64 by defeating Stephen F. Austin 85-75 in the First Four. Kellie Harper’s squad is a rebounding-focused unit that averaged 50 boards in their play-in victory and finished near the top of CUSA in offensive rebounding.
- Star Player: Kaemyn Bekemeier (G). The sophomore sensation has been the focal point of the Bears' attack, averaging 17.5 points and 8.3 rebounds. Fresh off a 22-point, 13-rebound performance in the First Four, she is the primary threat to Texas' interior defense.
- The Upset Formula: The Glass and the Grind. Missouri State ranks 72nd nationally in rebounding (35.1 RPG) but upped that to 50 boards in their last game. To pull off a historic upset, they must win the rebounding battle and limit Texas' 50.0% shooting through high-pressure defensive rotations.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: Madison Booker (TEX) vs. Kaemyn Bekemeier (MOST). This is a battle of star playmakers. Booker (18.9 PPG) is an agile, physical force that Missouri State must double-team to contain. Bekemeier (17.5 PPG) will be tasked with scoring against a Longhorn defense that gives up 12.3 percentage points less than she is used to facing.
- Statistical Edge: Texas has a massive advantage in shooting efficiency. Their 50.0% field goal percentage is significantly higher than the 37.7% Missouri State allows. However, the Lady Bears recorded 10 blocks in their First Four win, indicating a defensive ceiling that could challenge Texas at the rim.
- Betting Trends: Texas is a heavy 45.5-point favorite at home. While the Lady Bears are significant underdogs, they have won eight of their last 10 games and have momentum as "bracket busters" after their conference tournament run.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: Texas Longhorns
- Final Score Prediction: Texas 88, Missouri State 52
- Best Bet: Texas -45.5
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in the game between Texas and Missouri State? Texas is a substantial 45.5-point favorite.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange or subscribe to a 1, 3, & 7 Day Pass.
- What time is the game? Tip-off is at 4:00 PM ET (3:00 PM CT) on ESPN.