#16 Southern U. vs. #16 Samford Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness 2026
#16 Southern U. and #16 Samford meet at Colonial Life Arena for a First Four clash. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The Southern Jaguars reached March Madness® as back-to-back SWAC champions, having dominated Alabama State to secure their bid. Meanwhile, Samford pulled off a "Cinderella" run in the Southern Conference, winning three straight games against the top three seeds to punch their ticket despite a sub-.500 regular season. The winner of this matchup earns the ultimate reward (or punishment): a date with the No. 1 overall seed, South Carolina.
To watch the Jaguars vs. Bulldogs First Four game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to ESPN2 or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange.
Southern U. Jaguars Analysis
● Season Overview: Southern (19-13) secured their spot by winning the SWAC tournament for the second consecutive year. They rely on a stifling defense and a balanced offensive attack that features several scoring threats.
● Star Player: Jocelyn Tate (F). The veteran leader does it all for the Jaguars, recently posting a championship performance of 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists while acting as the team's defensive anchor.
● The X-Factor: Postseason Experience. Having made the tournament in 2025, the Jaguars' roster is well-acquainted with the pressure of the big dance, which could be a deciding factor against a young Samford squad.
Samford Bulldogs Analysis
● Season Overview: The Bulldogs (16-18) finished as the SoCon champions, making history as the first No. 6 seed to win the conference tournament since 1999. They have won 8 of their last 10 games.
● Star Player: Kaylee Yarbrough (G). The freshman phenom is coming off a career-high 25 points in the SoCon title game, including five three-pointers, serving as the Bulldogs' primary offensive engine.
● The Upset Formula: Three-Point Variance. Samford relies heavily on the long ball, shooting 58.8% from deep in their conference championship. If they replicate that hot shooting, they can overwhelm Southern's defensive rotations.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
● Position Battle: Guard Duel. This game will likely be decided on the perimeter as Southern's Zaria Hurston looks to contain the surging Kaylee Yarbrough. Samford's ability to handle Southern's full-court pressure will be the story of the game.
● Statistical Edge: Southern ranks significantly higher in defensive efficiency and turnover margin, while Samford holds the edge in three-point shooting and free-throw percentage (73.5%).
● Betting Trends: Southern is a narrow favorite. Samford has been elite as an underdog lately, winning three straight games as a betting longshot during their conference tournament run.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
● The Verdict: Southern U. Jaguars
● Final Score Prediction: Southern 66, Samford 61
● Best Bet: Southern -2.5
Frequently Asked Questions
● Who is the favorite in the game between Lady Bears and Ladyjacks? Southern is
a narrow 2.5-point favorite.
● Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange or subscribe to a 1,3, & 7 Day Passes.
● What time is the game? Tip-off is at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2