#4 Oklahoma vs. #13 Idaho Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#4 Oklahoma and #13 Idaho collide at the Lloyd Noble Center in a must-win NCAA® tourney matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The Sooners enter March Madness® as a formidable No. 4 seed, hosting the first two rounds in Norman after a stellar 24-7 season. Led by freshman sensation Aaliyah Chavez and veteran Raegan Beers, Oklahoma boasts one of the nation's most potent offenses, ranking 3rd in scoring at 86.7 PPG. They face an Idaho team that is the definition of "red hot," arriving on an 18-game winning streak after sweeping the Big Sky regular season and tournament titles. While Oklahoma is the heavy favorite at home, the Vandals are a top-5 rebounding team nationally and possess a dangerous inside-out game that could test the Sooners' defense.
To watch the Sooners vs. Vandals First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to ESPN or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange.
Game Information Table
Oklahoma Sooners Analysis
- Season Overview: Oklahoma (24-7) enters the tournament ranked 10th in the final AP Poll. The Sooners earned a No. 4 seed thanks to a high-octane season that included a landmark overtime win against South Carolina. Under Jennie Baranczyk, OU plays at a breakneck pace, leading the country in defensive rebounding and ranking top-5 in assists.
- Star Player: Aaliyah Chavez (G). The true freshman has lived up to the hype, leading the team with 18.4 points per game. Her ability to take over games—evidenced by her 26-point performance against South Carolina—makes her one of the most electric players in the bracket.
- The X-Factor: Raegan Beers (C). The senior center is a Wooden Award finalist and a double-double machine, averaging 15.7 points and 10.4 rebounds. Her presence in the paint allows Oklahoma to dominate the glass (+11.9 margin) and trigger their transition offense.
Idaho Vandals Analysis
- Season Overview: Idaho (29-5) set a program record for wins this season under Big Sky Coach of the Year Arthur Moreira. The Vandals haven't lost a game in over two months, riding an 18-game winning streak that saw them dominate the Big Sky Tournament.
- Star Player: Hope Hassmann (G). The Big Sky Tournament MVP is the engine of the Vandal offense, averaging 14.3 points and 4.2 assists. She will need to manage the Sooners' pressure effectively to give Idaho a chance to set up their half-court sets.
- The Upset Formula: Winning the Glass. Idaho ranks 4th nationally in rebounding (46.9 RPG). To pull off a historic 13-over-4 upset, Debora dos Santos (11.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and 6'5" Lorena Barbosa must prevent Beers and the Sooners from getting second-chance opportunities and limit OU's fast-break points.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: The Frontcourt Clash. The battle between Oklahoma's Raegan Beers and Idaho's Brazilian duo of Debora dos Santos and Lorena Barbosa will be the game's focal point. If Idaho can use their size to neutralize Beers in the post, they can slow down the tempo.
- Statistical Edge: Oklahoma holds a massive advantage in strength of schedule (18th vs. 244th) and offensive rating (28th nationally). However, Idaho matches up well in raw rebounding numbers and ranks top-25 in the country in scoring offense (77.1 PPG).
- Betting Trends: Oklahoma is a heavy 34.5-point favorite. While the Sooners are dominant at the Lloyd Noble Center, Idaho has covered the spread in six of their last eight games and enters with the confidence of a team that hasn't tasted defeat since mid-January.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: Oklahoma Sooners
- Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 91, Idaho 62
- Best Bet: Idaho +34.5
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in the game between Sooners and Vandals? Oklahoma is a heavy 34.5-point favorite.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange or subscribe to a 1, 3, & 7 Day Pass.
- What time is the game? Tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET (9:00 PM local time) on ESPN.