#6 Notre Dame vs. #11 Fairfield Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026

#6 Notre Dame and #11 Fairfield collide at the Schottenstein Center in the NCAA® tournament. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.

The Fighting Irish enter March Madness® looking to continue their streak of Sweet Sixteen appearances, despite receiving their lowest seed in over 15 years. Led by superstar Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame brings an elite defense that leads the nation in steals. They face a Fairfield squad that has become a mid-major juggernaut, winning 24 of their last 25 games and capturing the MAAC Championship. With the Stags leading the country in three-pointers made and the Irish excelling at full-court disruption, this matchup in Columbus promises a clash between perimeter precision and defensive chaos.

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Game Information Table

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Analysis

• Season Overview: Notre Dame (22-10) enters as the No. 6 seed in the Fort Worth regional. While they fell just short in an ACC semifinal thriller against Duke, the Irish have won nine of their last 11 games. They rely on a high-pressure system that ranks 1st nationally in steals per game (13.4) and 3rd in field goals made.
• Star Player: Hannah Hidalgo (G). The unanimous All-American and back-to-back ACC Player of the Year is the most dominant defensive guard in the country. Averaging 25.2 points and a staggering 5.4 steals, Hidalgo holds the NCAA record for steals in a single game (16) and is the engine of the Irish offense.
• The X-Factor: Supporting Scoring. While Hidalgo is the focal point, the emergence of Cassandre Prosper (13.8 PPG) as a secondary scoring threat has made the Irish harder to double-team. If Prosper and Iyana Moore can capitalize on the transition opportunities created by Hidalgo’s defense, Notre Dame can overwhelm opponents quickly.

Fairfield Stags Analysis

• Season Overview: Fairfield (28-4) secured their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance by winning the MAAC Tournament. The Stags are a statistical anomaly, leading all of Division I with 11.4 made three-pointers per game. They arrive in Columbus with an 11-game winning streak and a top-15 scoring defense.
• Star Player: Kaety L’Amoreaux (G). The MAAC Player of the Year leads the conference with 17.6 points per outing. A elite perimeter threat, L’Amoreaux is one of five Stags with 40 or more made threes this season, making her the primary concern for the Irish defense.
• The Upset Formula: Perimeter Barrage. Fairfield’s path to an upset lies in their "selfless brand of basketball," ranking in the top 20 for assist-to-turnover ratio. If Meghan Andersen (86 made 3s) and L’Amoreaux can get hot from deep early and navigate Notre Dame’s full-court press, they have the firepower to outscore the Irish.

Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics

• Position Battle: The Perimeter Chess Match. This game pits the nation's best three-point shooting team (Fairfield) against the nation's best perimeter disruption unit (Notre Dame). If Fairfield can maintain their 17.3 APG average against the Irish pressure, they can find the open looks they need to stay competitive.
• Statistical Edge: Notre Dame holds a massive advantage in strength of schedule (28th vs. 235th) and points off turnovers. However, Fairfield ranks 4th in the country in effective field-goal percentage, indicating that they rarely waste possessions when they get a shot off.
• Betting Trends: Notre Dame is an 10.5-point favorite. While the Irish have advanced to four straight Sweet Sixteens, Fairfield has covered the spread in 80% of their games this season when entering as a double-digit underdog.

Final Prediction & Betting Pick

• The Verdict: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 72, Fairfield 58
• Best Bet: Notre Dame +10.5

Frequently Asked Questions

• Who is the favorite in the game between Fighting Irish and Stags? Notre Dame is currently an 10.5-point favorite.
• Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange or subscribe to a 1, 3, & 7 Day Pass.
• What time is the game? Tip-off is at 2:00 PM ET on ESPN.

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