#7 NC State vs. #10 Tennessee Prediction,
Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#7 NC State faces #10 Tennessee at the Crisler Center for a win-or-go-home NCAA® tourney matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The Wolfpack and Lady Vols set the stage for one of the most anticipated rematches of March Madness’® First Round in Ann Arbor. These two programs opened the 2025-26 season against one another in a neutral-site thriller that saw NC State escape with an 80-77 victory. Since then, both teams have navigated grueling conference schedules; NC State maintained a steady presence in the ACC top four, while Tennessee endured a mid-season slump before finding their footing in the SEC. With a trip to the Second Round—and a likely date with host Michigan—on the line, expect a physical, high-scoring battle between two storied programs.
To watch the Wolfpack vs. Lady Vols First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to ESPN or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange.
Game Information Table
NC State Wolfpack Analysis
- Season Overview: NC State (20-10) enters the tournament for the ninth consecutive season under Wes Moore. After a strong 13-5 ACC campaign, the Wolfpack look to bounce back from an early exit in the conference tournament. They remain one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the region, averaging over 77 points per game.
- Star Player: Khamil Pierre (F). The Vanderbilt transfer has been a force in the paint, averaging 16.8 points and 12.0 rebounds per game. Pierre dominated the season opener against Tennessee with 21 points and will be the primary focus of the Lady Vols' defensive scheme.
- The X-Factor: Guard Play. While Pierre anchors the post, the backcourt duo of Zoe Brooks (16.3 PPG) and Zamareya Jones (14.3 PPG) provides the perimeter scoring needed to stretch defenses. If they can replicate their early-season efficiency, the Wolfpack will be difficult to slow down.
Tennessee Lady Vols Analysis
- Season Overview: Tennessee (16-13) continues its streak as the only program to appear in all 44 NCAA Tournaments. Despite a 2-10 stretch to end the regular season, the Lady Vols remain a dangerous out due to their elite strength of schedule (ranked 4th nationally) and high-tempo offense under Kim Caldwell.
- Star Player: Talaysia Cooper (G). The SEC All-Defensive selection leads the team in scoring (15.7 PPG) and was the conference leader in steals. Her ability to disrupt NC State’s ball-handlers and create transition opportunities is the engine that drives the Tennessee attack.
- The Upset Formula: Second-Chance Points. Tennessee ranks among the best in the country at generating extra possessions. If Janiah Barker (14.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Lazaria Spearman can win the battle on the offensive glass against Pierre, they can compensate for their shooting inconsistencies.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: The Post Rematch. The duel between NC State’s Khamil Pierre and Tennessee’s Janiah Barker will likely determine the winner. In their November meeting, the Wolfpack won the rebounding battle by a slim margin; the team that controls the paint in Ann Arbor will control the game.
- Statistical Edge: NC State holds the edge in offensive rating and field goal percentage, while Tennessee leads in defensive pressure and strength of schedule. Notably, Tennessee's NET ranking (23) actually sits slightly higher than NC State's (26) despite the seeding difference.
- Betting Trends: NC State is a narrow 3.5-point favorite. While the Wolfpack have won the last two meetings (including the 2024 NCAA Second Round), Tennessee is 12-5 all-time in the series and has a history of performing well as a tournament underdog.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: NC State Wolfpack
- Final Score Prediction: NC State 78, Tennessee 74
- Best Bet: Tennessee +1.5
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in the game between Wolfpack and Lady Vols? NC State is a narrow 1.5-point favorite.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange or subscribe to a 1, 3, & 7 Day Pass.
- What time is the game? Tip-off is at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN.