#16 Missouri State vs. #16 SFA Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness 2026
#16 Missouri State faces off against #16 SFA at Moody Center for a do-or-die First Four matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The Ladyjacks enter March Madness® on a scorching run, winners of 10 of their last 11 games and fresh off a Southland Conference Tournament title. Meanwhile, Missouri State pulled off a historic "bid steal" by winning the Conference USA Tournament as a No. 6 seed in their first year in the league. With both teams looking to advance for a shot at No. 1 seed Texas, expect a high-energy clash between two programs with rich postseason traditions.
To watch the Lady Bears vs. Ladyjacks game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to ESPN2 or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange.
Missouri State Lady Bears Analysis
● Season Overview: Missouri State (22-12) secured their spot by winning the Conference USA tournament, marking their 18th overall appearance in the big dance. They became the lowest seed in over a decade to win the CUSA crown.
● Star Player: Kaemyn Bekemeier (G). The sophomore guard has been the engine for the Lady Bears, averaging 17.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while providing elite perimeter scoring.
● The X-Factor: Rebounding Dominance. Missouri State ranks among the best in the nation with a +6.5 rebounding margin. If they can control the glass and limit SFA’s second-chance opportunities, they can dictate the tempo.
SFA Ladyjacks Analysis
● Season Overview: The Ladyjacks (25-9) secured back-to-back Southland Tournament championships to punch their ticket. They boast one of the nation's most efficient offenses, ranking in the top 40 for scoring at 75.3 PPG.
● Star Player: Myka Perry (G). A dynamic playmaker coming off a 21-point performance in the SLC title game, Perry leads a balanced attack that features four players scoring in double figures.
● The Upset Formula: Perimeter Efficiency. SFA ranks 1st in the Southland in three-point percentage (36.9%); if Harmanie Dominguez and Myka Perry find their rhythm from deep, they can stretch the Missouri State defense past its breaking point.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
● Position Battle: Guard Duel. This game features a heavy backcourt focus. Missouri State’s Bekemeier will be shadowed by SFA’s defensive specialist Key Roseby in a matchup that will decide who controls the perimeter.
● Statistical Edge: SFA holds the edge in offensive efficiency and scoring (75.3 vs 65.7 PPG), while Missouri State holds a significant advantage in defensive rebounding and NET-tested strength of schedule.
● Betting Trends: SFA is a narrow favorite in early markets. Missouri State has been excellent as an underdog lately, covering the spread in all three of their CUSA tournament upsets.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
● The Verdict: SFA Ladyjacks
● Final Score Prediction: SFA 68, Missouri State 64
● Best Bet: SFA -1.5
Frequently Asked Questions
● Who is the favorite in the game between Lady Bears and Ladyjacks? SFA is a narrow 1.5-point favorite.
● Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange or subscribe to a 1,3, & 7 Day Passes.
● What time is the game? Tip-off is at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2