#4 Minnesota vs. #13 Green Bay Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#4 Minnesota takes on #13 Green Bay at Williams Arena in
a First Round matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
March Madness® returns to Dinkytown as the Golden Gophers host an NCAA Tournament game for the first time since 2005. Minnesota enters as a formidable No. 4 seed after a resurgent season in the Big Ten, while Green Bay arrives as the Horizon League champions and a perennial giant-killer. With the Gophers boasting a dominant home record and the Phoenix having already notched an upset over Kansas State this season, Williams Arena is set for a classic mid-major vs. Power 4 showdown.
To watch the Gophers vs. Phoenix First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass + Sports Extras subscription to ESPNU or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange.
Game Information Table
to Sling Orange + Sports Extras
Minnesota Golden Gophers Analysis
- Season Overview: Minnesota (22-8) reached its highest seeding in two decades under coach Dawn Plitzuweit. The Gophers were nearly invincible at "The Barn" this year, going 13-3 and outscoring non-conference opponents by an average of 45.7 points at home.
- Star Player: Tori McKinney (G). The sophomore sensation has been a scoring machine, averaging 13.1 points and 2.0 steals. Her ability to defend the perimeter while leading the break makes her the most dynamic threat on the floor.
- The X-Factor: Home Court Advantage. Minnesota hasn't hosted a tournament game in 21 years. Expect a sell-out crowd at Williams Arena to provide an intimidating atmosphere that the young Gophers squad will look to feed off of early.
Green Bay Phoenix Analysis
- Season Overview: Green Bay (25-8) enters the dance on a three-game win streak after sweeping the Horizon League Tournament. They are a disciplined veteran group that ranks in the top 50 nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 58.6 points per game.
- Star Player: Jenna Guyer (C/F). The 6'2" senior leads the Phoenix with 15.1 points and 6.3 rebounds. Her ability to stretch the floor (36.4% from three) will force Minnesota's post defenders away from the rim.
- The Upset Formula: Three-Point Variance. The Phoenix live and die by the arc. If Green Bay can hit 10+ threes and utilize their top-25 assist-to-turnover ratio to limit Minnesota’s transition opportunities, they can keep this game within striking distance into the fourth quarter.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: The Glass War. Minnesota ranks in the top 60 in rebounding margin (+8.5), while Green Bay often struggles on the boards. If the Gophers' Amaya Battle (7.4 RPG) can secure second-chance points, it will be a long night for the Phoenix.
- Statistical Edge: Minnesota holds a massive advantage in Strength of Schedule (24th vs. 190th). However, Green Bay is statistically superior in free-throw percentage (75.6%) and has shown they can compete with the Big Ten, having lost by only four points to Wisconsin earlier this year.
- Betting Trends: Minnesota is a massive 22.5-point favorite. While the Gophers are 12-10 all-time in the tournament, Green Bay is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 80, Green Bay 62
- Best Bet: Green Bay +22.5
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in the game between Gophers and Phoenix? Minnesota is currently a 22.5-point favorite.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange + Sports Extras or subscribe to a 1, 3, & 7 Day Pass + Sports Extras.
- What time is the game? Tip-off is at 6:00 PM ET on ESPNU.