#5 Maryland vs. #12 Murray State Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026

#5 Maryland and #12 Murray State collide at Carmichael Arena in the NCAA Tournament. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.

The Terrapins enter March Madness® looking to reassert their dominance after a late-season stumble in the Big Ten. Despite a two-game losing skid to end the year, Brenda Frese’s squad boasts six Quad 1 wins and a high-octane offense that ranks 12th nationally. They face a red-hot Murray State team that set a program record with 31 wins and captured their second consecutive MVC title. The Racers are the nation's 5th-highest scoring team, setting the stage for a potential track meet in Chapel Hill.

To watch the Terrapins vs. Racers First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to ESPNU or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange.

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Game Information Table

Maryland Terrapins Analysis

• Season Overview: Maryland (23-8) earned an at-large bid after a 6th-place Big Ten finish. While an upset loss to Oregon in the conference tournament ended their hosting hopes, the Terps remain a dangerous out with top-25 wins over Ohio State, Kentucky, and USC.
• Star Player: Oluchi Okananwa (G). The Duke transfer has been a revelation, leading the team with 18.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Her ability to score in bunches—including 13 games with 20+ points—makes her the engine of the Maryland attack.
• The X-Factor: Tournament Pedigree. Brenda Frese is 19-1 in NCAA First Round games at Maryland. That experience, combined with the Terps' 10.0 rebounding margin, should allow them to control the tempo against a smaller Murray State lineup.

Murray State Racers Analysis

• Season Overview: The Racers (31-3) arrive on a collision course with history after winning 19 of their last 20 games. They lead the MVC in almost every offensive category and rank 1st nationally in free throw makes, proving they can generate points even when the shots aren't falling.
• Star Player: Halli Poock (G). The MVC Tournament MVP is a scoring machine, averaging 22.4 points per game. She recently dropped 33 points in the conference title game and is the focal point of the Racers' 86.1 PPG offense.
• The Upset Formula: Up-Tempo Chaos. Murray State plays at one of the fastest paces in the country. If they can bait a Maryland team with shortened depth into a 40-minute sprint and exploit their 330th-ranked scoring defense with transition threes, a 12-over-5 upset is well within reach.

Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics

• Position Battle: The Perimeter Fireworks. This game features two of the most explosive guards in the region: Maryland’s Oluchi Okananwa and Murray State’s Halli Poock. Both are high-volume scorers who can take over games, meaning the defensive assignment for both teams will be the top priority.
• Statistical Edge: Maryland holds a massive advantage in strength of schedule (41st vs. 218th) and defensive rating. However, Murray State holds the edge in shooting efficiency and ranks 1st in the country in free throw percentage (79.9%).
• Betting Trends: Maryland is a 14.5-point favorite. While the Terps have historical dominance in the first round, they are 0-2 against the spread in their last two games, while Murray State has covered in four of their last five neutral-site contests.

Final Prediction & Betting Pick

• The Verdict: Maryland Terrapins
• Final Score Prediction: Maryland 88, Murray State 76
• Best Bet: Murray State +30.5

Frequently Asked Questions

• Who is the favorite in the game between Terrapins and Racers? Maryland is a 30.5-point favorite.
• Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange + Sports Extras or subscribe to a 1, 3, & 7 Day Pass + Sports Extras.
• What time is the game? Tip-off is at 3:00 PM ET on ESPNU.

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