#11 Texas vs. #11 NC State Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#11 Texas and #11 NC State meet at the UD Arena for a high-stakes First Four® matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
Two of the final at-large teams in the March Madness® field meet in Dayton for a high-profile showdown between the Big 12 and the ACC. Both the Longhorns and the Wolfpack were among the "Last Four In," making this a true "win or go home" scenario for two programs that expected to be safely in the bracket a month ago.
To Watch the Longhorns vs. Wolfpack First Four® game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to truTV and add the Entertainment Extras pack.
Texas Longhorns Analysis
- Season Overview: Texas navigated a brutal Big 12 schedule to finish, relying on one
of the most athletic frontcourts in the country. - Star Player: Arthur Kaluma (F). The versatile forward provides a physical presence inside and the ability to stretch the floor, making him a difficult matchup for the Wolfpack's traditional bigs.
- The X-Factor: Defensive Rebounding. Texas is at its best when they limit opponents to one shot; their ability to secure the defensive glass will be vital against an aggressive NC State team.
NC State Wolfpack Analysis
- Season Overview: The Wolfpack secured 20 wins in the ACC, highlighted by several high-quality victories that ultimately saved their tournament resume.
- Star Player: Jayden Taylor (G). A scoring threat from anywhere on the floor, Taylor's ability to create his own shot late in the shot clock is a major asset for NC State.
- The Upset Formula: Forcing Turnovers. NC State thrives in transition; if they can use their defensive ball pressure to disrupt Texas's set offense, they can turn this into a high-scoring track meet.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: Frontcourt Physicality. The battle between Texas's length and NC State's interior bulk will likely determine who controls the paint and second-chance points.
- Statistical Edge: Texas enters with a top-40 defensive efficiency rating, while NC State ranks slightly higher in offensive production.
- Betting Trends: Texas is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite, while the over has hit in NC State's last four games against non-conference opponents.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: Texas Longhorns.
- Final Score Prediction: Texas 76, NC State 72.
- Best Bet: Texas -2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in the game between Longhorns vs Wolfpack? Texas is currently a 2.5-point favorite.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Men's Tournament by subscribing to Sling Blue and watch CBS games at the NCAA website.
- What time is the Texas game? Tip-off is at 9:15 PM ET on truTV.
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