#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#4 Nebraska takes on #13 Troy at the Paycom Center for a South Region clash. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The No. 4 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers arrive in Oklahoma City for March Madness® looking to make program history by securing their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory. Standing in their way is a dangerous No. 13 seed Troy Trojans squad that captured both the Sun Belt regular-season and tournament titles. While Nebraska has been ranked as high as the Top 5 this season, they face a Troy team currently on a four-game winning streak.
To Watch the Cornhuskers vs. Trojans First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to truTV and add the Entertainment Extras pack.
Nebraska Cornhuskers Analysis
- Season Overview: Nebraska (26-6) finished tied for second in the Big Ten regular season and holds a perfect record against teams outside the NET top tiers.
- Star Player: Rienk Mast (F). The senior leader is the focal point of a team that ranks 7th nationally in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to just 29% from three-point range.
- The X-Factor: Turnover Differential. Nebraska pairs efficient shot-making (top-35 in eFG%) with a +5% turnover differential, creating extra possessions that are difficult for mid-majors to overcome.
Troy Trojans Analysis
- Season Overview: The Trojans (22-11) enter the tournament hot after a 77-61 win over Georgia Southern to claim the Sun Belt Championship.
- Star Player: Thomas Dowd (F). Averaging a double-double with 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, Dowd provides the interior presence Troy needs to compete with power-conference length.
- The Upset Formula: Volume Three-Point Shooting. Troy attempts threes on 45% of their possessions; if guards Cooper Campbell and Cobi Campbell (both near 40% from deep) get hot, they can stress Nebraska's elite perimeter defense.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: Victor Valdes (Troy) vs. Nebraska Backcourt. The 6-foot-7 point guard Valdes loves to back down smaller defenders in pick-and-roll situations, which could create matchup nightmares for the Huskers' smaller guards.
- Statistical Edge: Nebraska ranks 28th nationally in Torvik's efficiency ratings since late January, driven by a defense that ranks in the top ten of nearly every major analytic category.
- Betting Trends: Nebraska opened as a heavy 13.5-point favorite, though the total (137.5) suggests oddsmakers expect a relatively controlled pace.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: Nebraska wins to secure their first tournament victory in school history.
- Final Score Prediction: Nebraska 75, Troy 62.
- Best Bet: Nebraska -13.5.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in Nebraska vs. Troy? Nebraska is a 13.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -1200.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Men's Tournament by subscribing to Sling Blue and watch CBS games at the NCAA website.
- What time is the Nebraska game? The game tips off at 12:40 p.m. ET (11:40 a.m. CT) on truTV.
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