#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#6 Louisville and #11 South Florida meet at the KeyBank Center for a high-stakes East Region matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals return to the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year under head coach Pat Kelsey, aiming for a deep March Madness® run after a premature exit last season. Standing in their way is the No. 11 seed South Florida Bulls, the 2026 American Athletic Conference champions who enter the Big Dance on a dominant 11-game winning streak. This matchup marks the first time these former conference rivals have met since 2014.
To Watch the Cardinals vs. Bulls First Round game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to TNT or a monthly subscription to Sling Orange or Blue.
or Blue.
Louisville Cardinals Analysis
- Season Overview: Louisville (23-10) secured seven Quad 1 wins this season, significantly improving their seed from a year ago.
- Star Player: Ryan Conwell (G). The All-ACC Second-Team selection averages 18.7 PPG and is the league's most prolific three-point shooter with over 100 made triples this season.
- The X-Factor: Health of Mikel Brown Jr. The standout freshman guard (18.2 PPG) missed the end of the regular season with a back injury; his availability alongside Conwell creates one of the most formidable backcourts in the country.
South Florida Bulls Analysis
- Season Overview: South Florida (25-8) captured the AAC Championship by defeating Wichita State and currently holds the longest active winning streak in the conference.
- Star Player: Wes Enis (G). The junior guard leads the Bulls in scoring at 16.8 PPG and provides a consistent perimeter threat.
- The Upset Formula: Offensive Volume. The Bulls rank 8th nationally in scoring (88.3 PPG) and lead the country in free throw attempts and makes per game, putting immense pressure on opposing defenses to defend without fouling.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
- Position Battle: Backcourt Scoring Duel. Louisville’s duo of Conwell and Brown Jr. (if healthy) vs. USF’s Enis and Izaiyah Nelson. Both teams rely heavily on guard play to initiate their high-tempo offenses.
- Statistical Edge: Louisville ranks 19th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, making them one of only eight teams to be top-25 in both categories.
- Betting Trends: Louisville opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but the high total (163.5) reflects two teams that rank in the top 100 for pace and scoring.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
- The Verdict: Louisville wins a high-scoring affair to advance to the Round of 32.
- Final Score Prediction: Louisville 85, South Florida 78.
- Best Bet: Over 163.5.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is the favorite in Louisville vs. South Florida? Louisville is a 5.5 to 6.5-point favorite depending on the sportsbook.
- Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Men's Tournament by subscribing to Sling Blue and watch CBS games at the NCAA website.
- What time is the Louisville game? The game tips off at 1:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
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