#2 Iowa State vs. #6 Tennessee Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness® 2026
#2 Iowa State and #6 Tennessee meet at the United Center in Chicago for a high-stakes Sweet 16® matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The #2 Iowa State Cyclones arrive in the Windy City as one of the most balanced teams remaining in the March Madness® bracket, fresh off a dominant 82-63 dismantling of No. 7 seed Kentucky. They face a battle-tested #6 Tennessee Volunteers squad that outlasted No. 3 seed Virginia 79-72 to secure their spot in the second weekend. This Midwest Region clash pits two programs with high-level defensive pedigree against each other for a trip to the Elite Eight®.
To Watch the Cyclones vs. Volunteers Sweet 16® game with Sling, use the link below for a 1 Day Pass subscription to TBS.
Iowa State Cyclones Analysis
Season Overview: Iowa State (29-7) finished tied for third in the Big 12 and enters the Sweet 16 ranking as a top-10 unit in both NET and KenPom. They have been nearly flawless in the tournament so far, scoring a program-record 108 points in the first round before blowing out Kentucky in the second.
Star Player: Tamin Lipsey (G). The veteran floor general is the heart of the Cyclones' attack, averaging 13.3 PPG and 5.0 APG. His ability to navigate pressure and facilitate for shooters like Milan Momcilovic is the engine that drives the Iowa State offense.
The X-Factor: Health of Joshua Jefferson. The star forward (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) missed the second round with an injury. While the Cyclones thrived without him against Kentucky, his interior presence and rebounding will be vital against a physical Tennessee frontline.
Tennessee Volunteers Analysis
Season Overview: Tennessee (24-11) navigated a brutal SEC schedule and has found its stride in March. They rank 13th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and have held 10 of their last 12 opponents under their season scoring average.
Star Player: Ja'Kobi Gillespie (G). The junior standout has been electric in the tournament, averaging 18.3 PPG. He is coming off a massive performance against Virginia and serves as the primary playmaker for a Vols team that thrives on defensive disruption.
The Upset Formula: Winning the "Math Battle." Tennessee averages fewer three-pointers than Iowa State (6.6 vs 9.1). To pull the upset, the Vols must dominate the offensive glass—where they rank 2nd nationally—and force the Cyclones into a low-possession, half-court grind.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
Position Battle: Perimeter Pressure vs. Ball Security. This game features two of the nation's elite turnover-forcing defenses. Iowa State's 20.1% defensive turnover rate will be tested by a Tennessee backcourt that has grown increasingly careful with the ball in the postseason.
Statistical Edge: Iowa State holds a significant advantage in shooting efficiency, ranking 12th nationally in 3-point percentage (39%). However, Tennessee holds a massive edge in rebounding margin, which could negate the Cyclones' shooting prowess.
Betting Trends: Iowa State is 20-14 ATS this season and has covered in both tournament games. Tennessee is just 16-18-1 ATS but has seen the "Under" hit in 10 of their last 12 contests.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
The Verdict: Iowa State Cyclones.
Final Score Prediction: Iowa State 73, Tennessee 67.
Best Bet: Iowa State -4.5.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite in the game between Cyclones vs Volunteers? Iowa State is a 3.5 to 4.5-point favorite according to opening lines from DraftKings and Fox Sports.
Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Men's Tournament by subscribing to Sling Blue (which includes TBS) and watch CBS games at the NCAA website.
What time is the Iowa State game? Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 10:10 PM ET (9:10 PM CT) on TBS.
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