#10 Virginia vs. #10 Arizona State Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March Madness 2026
#10 Virginia and #10 Arizona State clash at Carver-Hawkeye Arena for a win-or-go-home First Four matchup. Here are details, our prediction, and how to watch with Sling TV.
The Sun Devils are back in March Madness® for the first time since 2019, riding the momentum of a 24-win season under first-year coach Molly Miller. They face a Virginia squad that features one of the ACC's most explosive scorers and looks to reclaim its postseason glory. With a trip to face No. 7 Georgia on the line, expect a clash of styles between ASU’s disciplined defense and the Cavaliers' high-tempo transition game.
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Virginia Cavaliers Analysis
● Season Overview: Virginia (19-11) earned an at-large bid after finishing 11-7 in a rigorous ACC. Despite a three-game skid to end the season, their marquee win over No. 3 seed Louisville proved they can compete with anyone in the bracket.
● Star Player: Kymora Johnson (G). The junior star has been the focal point of the UVA offense, leading the team with 19.0 points and 6.2 assists per game. Her ability to create her own shot in late-clock situations is elite.
● The X-Factor: Offensive Firepower Virginia averages 75.3 PPG, ranking 5th in the ACC. If they can force ASU into a track meet, their superior depth in the backcourt could overwhelm the Sun Devils' rotations.
Arizona State Sun Devils Analysis
● Season Overview: Arizona State (24-10) is the ultimate turnaround story, jumping from 10 wins last season to a tournament bid in Miller's debut year. They finished 9-9 in the Big 12 and rely on a defense that holds opponents to just 60.6 PPG.
● Star Player: Gabby Elliott (G). The graduate transfer has provided a steady veteran hand, leading the Sun Devils with 16.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game while serving as their most reliable perimeter threat.
● The Upset Formula: Defensive Connectivity. ASU’s "connective tissue" defense ranks 56th nationally in efficiency. If they can disrupt Kymora Johnson’s rhythm and win the turnover battle, their deliberate pace will frustrate the Cavaliers.
Key Matchup & Advanced Analytics
● Position Battle: The Backcourt Connection. ASU’s Marley Washenitz grew up playing travel ball with UVA’s Kymora Johnson. This familiarity adds a psychological edge to the primary defensive assignment on the game’s best scorer.
● Statistical Edge: Virginia holds the advantage in scoring margin (+11.0) and offensive tempo, while Arizona State ranks significantly higher in points allowed (88th vs. 192nd) and field goal percentage defense.
● Betting Trends: Virginia is a slight favorite despite their recent losing streak. Arizona State is 3-1 against the spread in their last four games as an underdog.
Final Prediction & Betting Pick
● The Verdict: Arizona State Sun Devils
● Final Score Prediction: Arizona State 68, Virginia 65
● Best Bet: Arizona State +3.5
Frequently Asked Questions
● Who is the favorite in the game between Cavaliers and Sun Devils? Virginia is currently a 3.5-point favorite.
● Where can I stream the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Stream the entire Women’s Tournament by subscribing to Sling Orange or subscribe to 1,3, & 7 Day Passes.
● What time is the game? Tip-off is at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2